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Book part
Publication date: 24 March 2006

Ngai Hang Chan and Wilfredo Palma

Since the seminal works by Granger and Joyeux (1980) and Hosking (1981), estimations of long-memory time series models have been receiving considerable attention and a number of…

Abstract

Since the seminal works by Granger and Joyeux (1980) and Hosking (1981), estimations of long-memory time series models have been receiving considerable attention and a number of parameter estimation procedures have been proposed. This paper gives an overview of this plethora of methodologies with special focus on likelihood-based techniques. Broadly speaking, likelihood-based techniques can be classified into the following categories: the exact maximum likelihood (ML) estimation (Sowell, 1992; Dahlhaus, 1989), ML estimates based on autoregressive approximations (Granger & Joyeux, 1980; Li & McLeod, 1986), Whittle estimates (Fox & Taqqu, 1986; Giraitis & Surgailis, 1990), Whittle estimates with autoregressive truncation (Beran, 1994a), approximate estimates based on the Durbin–Levinson algorithm (Haslett & Raftery, 1989), state-space-based maximum likelihood estimates for ARFIMA models (Chan & Palma, 1998), and estimation of stochastic volatility models (Ghysels, Harvey, & Renault, 1996; Breidt, Crato, & de Lima, 1998; Chan & Petris, 2000) among others. Given the diversified applications of these techniques in different areas, this review aims at providing a succinct survey of these methodologies as well as an overview of important related problems such as the ML estimation with missing data (Palma & Chan, 1997), influence of subsets of observations on estimates and the estimation of seasonal long-memory models (Palma & Chan, 2005). Performances and asymptotic properties of these techniques are compared and examined. Inter-connections and finite sample performances among these procedures are studied. Finally, applications to financial time series of these methodologies are discussed.

Details

Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-388-4

Book part
Publication date: 24 April 2023

Peter C. B. Phillips

The discrete Fourier transform (dft) of a fractional process is studied. An exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data, leading to the frequency…

Abstract

The discrete Fourier transform (dft) of a fractional process is studied. An exact representation of the dft is given in terms of the component data, leading to the frequency domain form of the model for a fractional process. This representation is particularly useful in analyzing the asymptotic behavior of the dft and periodogram in the nonstationary case when the memory parameter d12. Various asymptotic approximations are established including some new hypergeometric function representations that are of independent interest. It is shown that smoothed periodogram spectral estimates remain consistent for frequencies away from the origin in the nonstationary case provided the memory parameter d < 1. When d = 1, the spectral estimates are inconsistent and converge weakly to random variates. Applications of the theory to log periodogram regression and local Whittle estimation of the memory parameter are discussed and some modified versions of these procedures are suggested for nonstationary cases.

Abstract

Details

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-838-5

Article
Publication date: 17 December 2020

Zhengxun Tan, Yao Fu, Hong Cheng and Juan Liu

This study aims to examine the long memory as well as the effect of structural breaks in the US and the Chinese stock markets. More importantly, it further explores possible…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the long memory as well as the effect of structural breaks in the US and the Chinese stock markets. More importantly, it further explores possible causes of the differences in long memory between these two stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ various methods to estimate the memory parameters, including the modified R/S, averaged periodogram, Lagrange multiplier, local Whittle and exact local Whittle estimations.

Findings

China's two stock markets exhibit long memory, whereas the two US markets do not. Furthermore, long memory is robust in Chinese markets even when we test break-adjusted data. The Chinese stock market does not meet the efficient market hypothesis (EMHs), including the efficiency of information disclosure, regulations and supervision, investors' behavior, and trading mechanisms. Therefore, its stock prices' sluggish response to information leads to momentum effects and long memory.

Originality/value

The authors elaborately illustrate how long memory develops by analyzing not only stock market indices but also typical individual stocks in both the emerging China and the developed US, which diversifies the EMH with wider international stylized facts and findings when compared with previous literature. A couple of tests conducted to analyze structural break effects and spurious long memory demonstrate the reliability of the results. The authors’ findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers worldwide.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 September 2014

Dilip Kumar

The purpose of this paper is to test the efficient market hypothesis for major Indian sectoral indices by means of long memory approach in both time domain and frequency domain…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to test the efficient market hypothesis for major Indian sectoral indices by means of long memory approach in both time domain and frequency domain. This paper also tests the accuracy of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) approach and the local Whittle (LW) approach by means of Monte Carlo simulation experiments.

Design/methodology/approach

The author applies the DFA approach for the computation of the scaling exponent in the time domain. The robustness of the results is tested by the computation of the scaling exponent in the frequency domain by means of the LW estimator. The author applies moving sub-sample approach on DFA to study the evolution of market efficiency in Indian sectoral indices.

Findings

The Monte Carlo simulation experiments indicate that the DFA approach and the LW approach provides good estimates of the scaling exponent as the sample size increases. The author also finds that the efficiency characteristics of Indian sectoral indices and their stages of development are dynamic in nature.

Originality/value

This paper has both methodological and empirical originality. On the methodological side, the author tests the small sample properties of the DFA and the LW approaches by using simulated series of fractional Gaussian noise and find that both the approach possesses superior properties in terms of capturing the scaling behavior of asset prices. On the empirical side, the author studies the evolution of long-range dependence characteristics in Indian sectoral indices.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 9 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2013

Lauren A. Monds, Helen M. Paterson and Keenan Whittle

Operational debriefing and psychological debriefing both involve groups of participants (typically from the emergency services) discussing a critical incident. Research on…

502

Abstract

Purpose

Operational debriefing and psychological debriefing both involve groups of participants (typically from the emergency services) discussing a critical incident. Research on post‐incident debriefing has previously raised concerns over the likelihood that this discussion may affect not only psychological responses, but also memory integrity. It is possible that discussion in this setting could increase susceptibility to the misinformation effect. This paper seeks to address these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The aim of this study was to investigate whether including a warning to the debriefing instructions about the possibility of memory contamination could reduce the misinformation effect. Participants viewed a stressful film, and were assigned to one of three conditions: debriefing with standard instructions, debriefing with a memory warning, or an individual recall control condition. Free recall memory and distress for the film were assessed.

Findings

Results indicate that participants in both debriefing conditions reported significantly more misinformation than those who did not participate in a discussion. Additionally it was found that the warning of memory contamination did not diminish the misinformation effect.

Originality/value

These findings are discussed with suggestions for the future of debriefing, with a particular focus on the emergency services.

Details

International Journal of Emergency Services, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2047-0894

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 6 January 2016

Gabriele Fiorentini, Alessandro Galesi and Enrique Sentana

We generalise the spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models in Fiorentini, Galesi, and Sentana (2014) to bifactor models with pervasive global factors complemented by…

Abstract

We generalise the spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models in Fiorentini, Galesi, and Sentana (2014) to bifactor models with pervasive global factors complemented by regional ones. We exploit the sparsity of the loading matrices so that researchers can estimate those models by maximum likelihood with many series from multiple regions. We also derive convenient expressions for the spectral scores and information matrix, which allows us to switch to the scoring algorithm near the optimum. We explore the ability of a model with a global factor and three regional ones to capture inflation dynamics across 25 European countries over 1999–2014.

Book part
Publication date: 30 May 2018

Francesco Moscone, Veronica Vinciotti and Elisa Tosetti

This chapter reviews graphical modeling techniques for estimating large covariance matrices and their inverse. The chapter provides a selective survey of different models and…

Abstract

This chapter reviews graphical modeling techniques for estimating large covariance matrices and their inverse. The chapter provides a selective survey of different models and estimators proposed by the graphical modeling literature and offers some practical examples where these methods could be applied in the area of health economics.

Book part
Publication date: 19 November 2014

Guillaume Weisang

In this paper, I propose an algorithm combining adaptive sampling and Reversible Jump MCMC to deal with the problem of variable selection in time-varying linear model. These types…

Abstract

In this paper, I propose an algorithm combining adaptive sampling and Reversible Jump MCMC to deal with the problem of variable selection in time-varying linear model. These types of model arise naturally in financial application as illustrated by a motivational example. The methodology proposed here, dubbed adaptive reversible jump variable selection, differs from typical approaches by avoiding estimation of the factors and the difficulties stemming from the presence of the documented single factor bias. Illustrated by several simulated examples, the algorithm is shown to select the appropriate variables among a large set of candidates.

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1946

H. Roxbee Cox

WHILE the technical part of the history of the aircraft gas turbine in Great Britain presents the features of success and failure familiar in technical progress, there is another…

Abstract

WHILE the technical part of the history of the aircraft gas turbine in Great Britain presents the features of success and failure familiar in technical progress, there is another part of the history which I believe can be described as an unqualified success. I refer to the habit of collaboration which was developed between the several technical teams in my own country, between Great Britain and the United States, and, later, between Great Britain and the British Dominions.

Details

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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