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This paper aims to propose a framework based on the unbiased extreme value volatility estimator (namely, the AddRS estimator) to compute and predict the long position and the short position value-at-risk (VaR) and stressed expected shortfall (ES). The precise prediction of VaR and ES measures has important implications toward financial institutions, fund managers, portfolio managers, regulators and business practitioners.

The proposed framework is based on the Giot and Laurent (2004) approach and incorporates characteristics like long memory, fat tails and skewness. The authors evaluate its VaR and ES forecasting performance using various backtesting approaches for both long and short positions on four global indices (S&P 500, CAC 40, Indice BOVESPA [IBOVESPA] and S&P CNX Nifty) and compare the results with that of various alternative models.

The findings indicate that the proposed framework outperforms the alternative models in predicting the long and the short position VaR and stressed ES. The findings also indicate that the VaR forecasts based on the proposed framework provide the least total loss for various long and short position VaR, and this supports the superior properties of the proposed framework in forecasting VaR more accurately.

The study contributes by providing a framework to predict more accurate VaR and stressed ES measures based on the unbiased extreme value volatility estimator.

The purpose of this paper is to understand the subjects contained in the Dunhuang mural images as well as their relation structures.

This paper performed content analysis based on Panofsky’s theory and 237 research papers related to the Dunhuang mural images. UNICET software was also used to study the correlation structures of subject network.

The results show that the three levels of subject have all captured the attention of Dunhuang mural researchers, the iconology occupy the critical position in the whole image study, and the correlation between iconography and iconology was strong. Further analysis reveals that cultural development, production, and power and domination have high centralities in the subject network.

The research samples come from three major Chinese journal databases. However, there are still many authoritative monographs and foreign publications about the Dunhuang murals which are not included in this study.

The results uncover the subject hierarchies and structures contained in the Dunhuang murals from the angle of image scholarship which express scholars’ intention and contribute to the deep semantic annotation on digital Dunhuang mural images.

Without precedent, green bonds confront, for the first time since their emergence, a twofold crisis context, namely the Covid-19-Russian–Ukrainian crisis period. In this context, this paper aims to investigate the connectedness between the two pioneering bond market classes that are conventional and treasury, with the green bonds market.

In their forecasting target, authors use a Support Vector Regression model on daily S&P 500 Green, Conventional and Treasury Bond Indexes for a year from 2012 to 2022.

Authors argue that conventional bonds could better explain and predict green bonds than treasury bonds for the three studied sub-periods (pre-crisis period, Covid-19 crisis and Covid-19-Russian–Ukrainian crisis period). Furthermore, conventional and treasury bonds lose their forecasting power in crisis framework due to enhancements in market connectedness relationships. This effect makes spillovers in bond markets more sensitive to crisis and less predictable. Furthermore, this research paper indicates that even if the indicators of the COVID-19 crisis have stagnated and the markets have adapted to this rather harsh economic framework, the forecast errors persist higher than in the pre-crisis phase due to the Russian–Ukrainian crisis effect not yet addressed by the literature.

This study has several implications for the field of green bond forecasting. It not only illuminates the market participants to the best market forecasters, but it also contributes to the literature by proposing an unadvanced investigation of green bonds forecasting in Crisis periods that could help market participants and market policymakers to anticipate market evolutions and adapt their strategies to period specificities.

Given the systemic nature of climate change, there are many interdependencies between its primary components and feedback loops, emphasising the need to simultaneously consider the stock market implications of physical and transitional climate-related risks. More importantly, carbon emissions are expected to be reduced through various transition pathways. However, transitional climate risks have been validated as capable of predicting stock market behaviour, hence the motivation for the role of technology shocks.

We use a GARCH-MIDAS model to examine the relationship between climate change and stock return volatility since it enables data analysis at various frequencies within the same framework. We employ a novel dataset to track technology shocks, and the study spans decades of data from 1880 to 2018.

We find that the relationship between climate change and stock return volatility is episodic and varies with different degrees of intensity of high-temperature anomalies and technology shocks. Our results suggest that policy actions should include investing in climate technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encouraging investment in eco-friendly assets.

There has been little or no consideration for the probable complementary effects of physical and transition climate-related risks on stock markets. Hence, the novelty in the context of this study is the hypothesis that transitional risks, if explored from the point of view of technological innovations, can moderate the stock market’s vulnerability to physical climate risks.

The purpose of this study is to examine the propagation of consumer and business confidence in the euro area with a particular focus on the global financial crisis (GFC), the European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC) and the COVID-19-induced Great Lockdown.

The authors apply Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectedness framework and the improved method based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model.

The authors find that although the evolution of business confidence marked the GFC and the ESDC the role of consumer confidence (mainly in those countries with stricter containment and closure measures) increased in the COVID-19-induced crisis.

The findings are related to the different origins of the examined crisis periods, and the analysis of their interrelationship is a very relevant topic for future research.

This study aims to explore the challenges faced by the tourism and hospitality industry following the COVID-19 pandemic and to propose effective strategies for recovery and resilience of this sector.

The study analysed the challenges encountered by the tourism and hospitality industry post-pandemic and identified key strategies for overcoming these challenges. The study utilised the modified Delphi method to finalise the challenges and employed the Best-Worst Method (BWM) to rank these challenges. Additionally, solution strategies are ranked using the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method.

The study identified significant challenges faced by the tourism and hospitality industry, highlighting the lack of health and hygiene facilities as the foremost concern, followed by increased operational costs. Moreover, it revealed that attracting millennial travellers emerged as the top priority strategy to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on this industry.

This research contributes to understanding the challenges faced by the tourism and hospitality industry in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. It offers valuable insights into practical strategies for recovery. The findings provide beneficial recommendations for policymakers aiming to revive and support these industries.

The COVID-19 pandemic deteriorated the economic situation and raised the issue of the quality of banks’ assets and, in particular, the growth of non-performing loans (NPLs). The study approaches a topical subject that is of interest to banks and society at large, as credit availability is likely to be reduced. Over the last 10 years, the Baltic countries’ banking sector has significantly improved its risk management policies and practices, increased capital ratios on its balance sheets, and created risk reserves. The current chapter examines the factors affecting NPLs in the Baltic States based on advanced econometric modelling applied to data extracted from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Eurostat. The study results show that credit risk management in the Baltic States has significantly improved compared to the period before the global financial crisis (GFC), the capitalisation of credit institutions is one of the highest in the European Union (EU), and banks are liquid and profitable. Lending recovered from the downturn in the first phase of the pandemic, and credit institutions have taken advantage of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) long-term funding programme ITRMO III to improve the liquidity outlook. Although the credit quality of commercial banks has not deteriorated, as the exposures of credit institutions in the most affected sectors are insignificant and governments have provided fiscal support to businesses and households, some challenges remain. The increase in credit risk is expected due to rising production prices as well as the rebuilding of disrupted supply chains. The findings allow conclusions to be drawn on the necessary actions to mitigate the credit risk of the banking sector.

The purpose of the article is to study the recent tendencies of growth of Russia’s agro-industrial complex (AIC), determine the optimal scenario of its development, and develop recommendations in the sphere of state regulation for its practical implementation. While there are tendencies of growing production and increase in Russia’s export, against this background, there is a tendency of quicker increase of import of food – if it continues, positive balance of foreign trade of food products in 2018 will turn into negative balance in 2020–2024. Though efficiency of crop farming is peculiar for a tendency of quick growth, efficiency of animal breeding is stable, which does not allow overcoming the growing deficit of food in Russia, which grows under the influence of the tendency of wear of fixed funds and slow implementation of new fixed funds due to insufficient financing. Scenarios of mid-term (i.e., until 2024) growth of Russia’s AIC are compiled, of which the most optimal is scenario that requires technological advancements, due to which increase in the value of index of food security up to 85.00 points (27%) will be achieved and the set goals of growth and development of Russia’s AIC will be reached. For a successful optimal scenario of the growth of Russia’s AIC, we offer recommendations in the sphere of state regulation of its digital modernization: adoption of the national strategy of transition to AIC 4.0 within the program “Digital economy of the RF,” development of import substitution in the AIC with emphasis on B2B markets, preparation of the technological platform for transition to AIC 4.0, and sufficient financing for digital modernization of the AIC.

Introduction: The insurance industry has unprecedented growth, and the demand for insurance has outgrown in the recent past due to the prevailing pandemic. The companies have a large base of the data set at their disposal, and companies must appropriately handle these data to come out with valuable solutions. Data mining enables insurance companies to gain an insightful approach to map strategies and gain competitive advantage, thus strengthening the profits that will allow them to identify the effectiveness of back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and support vector machines (SVMs) for the companies considered under study. Data mining techniques are the data-driven extraction techniques of information from large data repositories, thus discovering useful patterns from the voluminous data (Weiss & Indurkya, 1998).

Purpose: The present study is performed to investigate the comparative performance of BPNNs and SVMs for the selected Indian insurance companies.

Methodology: The study is conducted by extracting daily data of Indian insurance companies listed on the CNX 500. The data were then transformed into technical indicators for predictive model building using BPNN and SVMs. The daily data of the selected insurance companies for four years, that is, 1 April 2017 to 21 March 2021, were used for this. The data were further transformed into 90 data sets for different periods by categorising them into biannual, annual, and two-year collective data sets. Additionally, the comparison was made for the models generated with the help of BPNNs and SVMs for the six Indian insurance companies selected under this study.

Findings: The findings of the study exhibited that the predictive performance of the BPNN and SVM models are significantly different from each other for SBI data, General Insurance Corporation of India (GICRE) data, HDFC data, New India Assurance Company Ltd. (NIACL) data, and ICICIPRULI data at a 5% level of significance.

Introduction: The insurance industry is one of the lucrative sectors of the economy. However, it is volatile because of the large chunk of data generated by the transactions taking place daily. However, every bit of it is responsible for creating market trends for stock investors to predict the returns. The specialised data mining techniques act as a solution for decision-making, reducing uncertainty in decision-making.

Purpose: There are limited studies that have examined the efficiency and effectiveness of data mining techniques across the companies in the insurance industry to date. To enable the companies to take exact benefit of data mining techniques in insurance, the present study will focus on investigating the efficiency of artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine SVM across insurance companies of CNX 500.

Method: For predictive models, various technical indicators were considered independent variables, and change in return, i.e. increase and decrease, was deemed a dependent variable. The indicators were transformed from daily raw data of insurance company’s stock values spanning four years. We formed 90 data sets of varied periods for building the model – specifically six months, one year, two years, and four years for selected six insurance companies.

Findings: The study’s findings revealed that ANN performed best for the ICICIPRULI data model in terms of hit ratio. Whereas the performance of SVM was observed to be the best for the ICICIGI data model. In the case of pairwise comparison among the six selected Indian insurance companies from CNX 500, the extracted data evaluated and concluded that there were eight significantly different pairs based on hit ratio in the case of ANN models and nine significantly different pairs based on hit ratio for SVM models.