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House price fluctuations send vital signals to many parts of the economy, and long-term predictions of house prices are of great interest to governments and property developers. Although predictive models based on economic fundamentals are widely used, the common requirement for such studies is that underlying data are stationary. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of alternative filtering methods for forecasting house prices.

We specifically focus on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment and multiplicative decomposition using median house prices for Sydney from Q3 1994 to Q1 2017. The model performance is evaluated using out-of-sample forecasting techniques and a robustness check against secondary data sources.

Multiplicative decomposition outperforms exponential smoothing at forecasting accuracy. The superior decomposition model suggests that seasonal and cyclical components provide important additional information for predicting house prices. The forecasts for 2017–2028 suggest that prices will slowly increase, going past 2016 levels by 2020 in the apartment market and by 2022/2023 in the detached housing market.

We demonstrate that filtering models are simple (univariate models that only require historical house prices), easy to implement (with no condition of stationarity) and widely used in financial trading, sports betting and other fields where producing accurate forecasts is more important than explaining the drivers of change. The paper puts forward a case for the inclusion of filtering models within the forecasting toolkit as a useful reference point for comparing forecasts from alternative models.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper undertakes the first systematic comparison of two filtering models for the Sydney housing market.

Australia’s Future Tax System (2009) among its recommendations identified the need for realignment of tax revenue across the tiers of government in Australia, as well as the need to raise additional revenue from land-based taxes. In achieving these objectives, this paper aims to examine the revenues generated from land and how capital gains tax may be reconceptualised as a value capture tax resulting from the rapid urbanisation of Australia’s cities. The development of a theoretical framework realigns the emerging rationale of a value capture tax, as a means for revenue to be divested from central government in the form of capital gains, to sub-central government as a value capture tax.

A qualitative research methodology comprising grounded theory and phenomenological research is used in undertaking the review of tax revenue collection from state land tax, conveyance stamp duty, local government rating and Commonwealth capital gains tax. Grounded theory is applied for constant comparison of the data with the objectives of maximising similarities and differences in these revenues with an analytical construct as defined by Strauss and Corbin (1990, p. 61).

The paper finds that realigning revenue from land-based taxes against the principles of good tax design provides greater opportunity to raise additional revenue to fund public infrastructure while decentralising revenue from central government. It provides an alternate mechanism for revenue transfer from central to sub-central government while conceptually improving own source revenue from value capture taxation as a new revenue source.

The limitation of this paper is the ability to quantify the potential increase that would be generated in the form of value capture revenue. It is demonstrated in the paper that capital gains tax took over 15 years for revenue generation to crystallise, a factor that would likely occur in the potential introduction of a value capture tax for funding transport infrastructure.

The pathway to introducing a value capture tax is through re-innovating capital gains tax as a value capture tax directly hypothecated to funding transport infrastructure that results in the uplift in values of the surrounding property from which revenue is raised.

This paper provides a new approach in contributing to funding the capital outlay of public infrastructure in lieu of central government consolidated revenue allocated through the Commonwealth Grants Commission. It provides a much-needed approach to decentralising revenue from the Commonwealth to sub-central government in Australia which has one of the most centralised tax systems in the OECD.

This paper aims to develop a house price forecasting model to investigate the impact of neighbourhood effect on property value.

Multi-level modelling (MLM) method is used to develop the house price forecasting models. The neighbourhood effects, that is, socio-economic conditions that exist in various locations, are included in this study. Data from the local government area in Greater Sydney, Australia, has been collected to test the developed model.

Results show that the multi-level models can account for the neighbourhood effects and provide accurate forecasting results.

It is believed that the impacts on specific households may be different because of the price differences in various geographic areas. The “neighbourhood” is an important consideration in housing purchase decisions.

While increasing housing supply provisions to match the housing demand, governments may consider improving the quality of neighbourhood conditions such as transportation, surrounding environment and public space security.

The demand and supply of housing in different locations have not behaved uniformly over time, that is, they demonstrate spatial heterogeneity. The use of MLM extends the standard hedonic model to incorporate physical characteristics and socio-economic variables to estimate dwelling prices.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the land acquisition phase and site assembly of land for large scale infrastructure road projects and its impact on property owners. A review of one of the largest roadwork projects currently underway in Sydney Australia demonstrates the adverse impact that has resulted in property owners challenging the approach used by government to acquire land for this project. Similar case studies are used to set out the key measures that should apply internationally in mitigating challenges from property owners in the land acquisition phase. It further shows that while adequate statutory provisions are important, it is the practices of acquiring authorities that ultimately determine the success and expedition of this initial important phase of these projects.

In measuring the factors that impact the acquisition of land by negotiation in contrast to acquisition by compulsory taking, a case study methodology is used. In this approach, the author reviews two completed projects and the factors that contributed to their success. These are contrasted with the primary case study currently underway in Sydney, the WestConnex project in which a number of adverse factors have emerged that have impacted this project. The review of these cases examined provides options for reforms that should be adopted both in the WestConnex case and across projects internationally.

It is demonstrated that the impact of the land acquisition phase on property owners with limited ability to rehouse within the same or surrounding locations, results in increases to challenges. This factor has prompted increases in the number of cases that have proceeded to court and potentially impacts the public perception and site assembly phase of large scale road projects. The inability for impacted property owners to relocate themselves has resulted in a breakdown in the ability for acquiring authorities to achieve acquisition by agreement. This is evidenced by significant increases in the number of properties that have been acquired by compulsion since 2016. It is found that the operational provisions of the land acquisition processes were obsolete in NSW, particularly those leading up to acquisition that was originally designed to assist owners. The paper finds that the most important phase of a megaproject is the planning and consultation phase, which includes most importantly the way in which impacted owners are informed, assisted and compensated. It is concluded that the processes engaged in by acquiring authorities rather than the statutory provisions available, will determine the success of the land acquisition phase and perceptions of the project.

The primary contribution of this paper is defining the changing landscape that has led to the adverse impact on property owners in the site assembly process for large scale projects. It identifies the reforms that will enhance opportunity for owners to relocate and rehouse which will expedite the acquisition phase of megaprojects and restore acquisition by agreement rather than by compulsion. This in turn will contribute to improve public perception of large scale projects in urbanised locations.

This paper aims to articulate the emerging and non‐descript purposes “referred to as public purposes” for which land and property may be acquired within Australia and internationally using compulsory acquisition laws.

In demonstration the emergence of non‐descript purposes for which land is being acquired, a reflective case study in the USA, has been used to both highlight the broad nature of public purposes as well as the emerging trend of land acquired for site assembly and on‐sale to private developers.

The main findings of this paper are threefold. The first finding is the extent of public resistance and backlash to what is seen as a threat to the tenure of land and property rights. The second finding is the perceived abuse of land acquisition powers by government for site assembly and on‐sale of land for purposes beyond the provision of traditional public infrastructure. The final finding is the lack of adequate compensation or framework for the provision of compensation in the form of reinstatement for parties dispossessed of their property.

A “just term parity value” framework and model has been developed to evoke and provide a way forward in the provision of compensation which includes the provision of re‐instatement for property owners dispossessed of their property.