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The appropriateness of traditional travel models has recently been questioned on the grounds that behaviour change represents an ongoing process subject potentially to the effect of new policy initiatives in the long term. The travel market is a dynamic function of change in lifecycle stage as well as underlying demographic, economic and level of service effects. Belfast has recently experienced the opening of two new rail projects. The decision to proceed with these projects was informed by two modelling exercises. The paper considers not only the models, forecasts and outturn travel behaviour change but the appropriateness of the models in the context of a dynamic market.