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The displaced commercial risk is one of the specific risks in the Islamic finance that creates a serious debate among practitioners and researchers about its management. The purpose of this paper is to assess a new approach to manage this risk using machine learning algorithms.

To attempt this purpose, the authors use several machine learning algorithms applied to a set of financial data related to banks from different regions and consider the deposit variation intensity as an indicator.

Results show acceptable prediction accuracy. The model could be used to optimize the prudential reserves for banks and the incomes distributed to depositors.

However, the model uses several variables as proxies since data are not available for some specific indicators, such as the profit equalization reserves and the investment risk reserves.

Previous studies have analyzed the origin and impact of DCR. To the best of authors’ knowledge, none of them has provided an ex ante management tool for this risk. Furthermore, the authors suggest the use of a new approach based on machine learning algorithms.

This study aims to provide an interest-free valuation methodology for Murabaha and Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts. Indeed, In Islamic finance, Murabaha contracts are widely negotiated. Their yield depends mainly on the contracted profit margin. In the current practices, this latter is based on a reference interest rate, which is highly criticized in Islamic literature, just like Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts. In this perspective, authors suggest a new valuation methodology with parameters related to the real economy.

The authors apply an indirect method to determine a lower bound of the profit margin of a Murabaha contract. Considering Musharakah Moutanaquissah as an equivalent contract, the new valuation methodology is based on participation and focuses on parameters from the real economy: the market rent and the rate of return used for an equivalent project.

The results show that the pricing of Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts could be based on several parameters linked to the real economy. Consequently, an implied value of the profit margin could be computed. Also, the interest rate is no longer implicated in the pricing of neither Murabaha nor Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts.

The valuation methodology is applicable only if the underlying asset’s financing can be made with Murabaha and Musharakah Moutanaquissah contracts.

This work will restore the link between Islamic contracts and the real economy. For Islamic banks in particular, the suggested model would reduce the exposure to reputational risk and enhance the compliance to the Sharia (Islamic Law).

Several studies have analyzed the dependence between Islamic contracts and interest rates. In general, these studies confirm this dependence and few of them have suggested alternatives. Thus, the authors contribute to the literature by providing a practical and applicable model to detach the valuation of Murabaha and Musharakah Moutanaquissah from the interest rate.