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Discrete choice models based on cross-sectional data have the important limitation of not considering habit and inertia effects and this may be especially significant in changing environments; notwithstanding, most demand models to date have been based on this type of data. To avoid this limitation, we started by building a mode choice panel around a drastically changing environment, the introduction of a radically new public transport system for the conurbation of Santiago de Chile. This paper presents the formulation and estimation of a family of discrete choice models that enables to treat two main elements: (i) the relative values of the modal attributes, as usual, and (ii) the shock resulting from the introduction of this radical new policy. We also analyse the influence of socioeconomic variables in these two forces.

We found that introducing this drastic new policy may even modify the perception of attribute values; in fact, the changes can be different among individuals, as socioeconomic characteristics act as either enhancers or softeners of the shock effects generated by the new policy.