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Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Daniel Pakši and Aleš Melecký

In this chapter, we aim to analyze the housing market development in Czechia, in particular the development of housing prices over the last 25 years. We quantify and discuss three…

Abstract

In this chapter, we aim to analyze the housing market development in Czechia, in particular the development of housing prices over the last 25 years. We quantify and discuss three distinct periods of excessive growth of regional Czech housing prices, identified through the formation of large positive GAPs – (1) before the entrance of Czechia to the European Union (EU), (2) at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis GFC, (3) in 2021. In all these periods, we identify significant differences among regions. We find that GAPs above 15% may be considered an indication of unsustainable long-term housing price growth that will be followed by a correction.

We then employ fixed effect panel data model to determine the drivers of flat and house prices in 14 Czech regions. Our results show that wage growth, migration and crime rate are significant factors affecting the prices of both flats and houses. Nevertheless, the impact of GDP per capita and job market indicators differs between flats and houses. Moreover, we find that higher migration into the region increases the difference between the prices of houses and flats, while increasing GDP per capita growth and crime rate mitigate this difference significantly.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 May 2024

Apoorva Dandinashivara Krishnamurthy and Gangadhar Mahesh

In the context of an absence of studies examining the interrelationship between Indian construction industry and residential real estate sector, the study aims to develop and test…

Abstract

Purpose

In the context of an absence of studies examining the interrelationship between Indian construction industry and residential real estate sector, the study aims to develop and test a conceptual framework to stimulate construction industry through optimisation of housing market in India. The developed conceptual framework lays down a blueprint to assess the interaction between construction industry and housing market in other countries.

Design/methodology/approach

Means of stimulation of construction industry by residential real estate sector were identified. Housing market was examined to identify factors constituting consumer-centric delivery and consumer-empowered demand. Supply side of housing market was probed to identify underlying factors stifling housing delivery. The identified factors were put together to form the conceptual framework. A questionnaire was developed and administered to the delivery-side stakeholders of housing market.

Findings

The study demonstrates significant correlations between real estate investment-led construction industry output stimulation and consumer-centric residential real estate delivery. The deterrents to consumer-centric housing delivery have been ascertained to be having an impact on time, cost and scope of housing projects. Significant correlations have been ascertained between the deterrents. On the demand-side, skills, awareness and engagement of consumers are strongly correlated with each other. Affordability of housing is rightfully correlated with all the three means of stimulation of construction industry output.

Originality/value

Specific to the Indian context, the study presents and validates a novel conceptual framework aimed at stimulation of construction industry output through interventions in housing market.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 May 2024

Umar Lawal Dano

This study aims to explore and analyze the disparities in the distribution of housing types and characteristics among households in Saudi Arabia, taking into consideration the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore and analyze the disparities in the distribution of housing types and characteristics among households in Saudi Arabia, taking into consideration the regional perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses quantitative data obtained from the General Authority for Statistics, specifically from the Saudi 2022 Statistical Census. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (percentages) as well as inferential statistics, including correlation analysis (Pearson correlation) and t-tests.

Findings

The study found a distinct preference among Saudis for villas, with 85.3% choosing this housing type, while only 14.7% of non-Saudis opted for villas. The statistical analysis confirmed the significance of housing type for Saudi citizens (t = 2.561, p = 0.037), while non-Saudis did not show a statistically significant preference (t = 1.703, p = 0.132). The Pearson correlation results revealed a moderate positive correlation (r = 0.641, p = 0.009) between regional landmass and the number of houses, and a very strong positive relationship (r = 0.984) between population and the number of houses across the 13 regions. As expected, with increasing population, there was a significant increase in the number of houses (p = 0.001).

Originality/value

This study fills a research gap by investigating regional disparities in housing characteristics in Saudi Arabia. The findings are valuable for policymakers, housing developers and the housing market in understanding these disparities. The insights from this research can inform decision-making to promote equitable access to housing types and foster social inclusivity in the housing sector.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2024

Evangelos Vasileiou, Elroi Hadad and Martha Oikonomou

We examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.

Abstract

Purpose

We examine the aggregate price trend of the Greek housing market from a behavioral perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

We construct a behavioral real estate sentiment index, based on relevant real estate search terms from Google Trends and websites, and examine its association with real estate price distributions and trends. By employing EGARCH(1,1) on the New Apartments Index data from the Bank of Greece, we capture real estate price volatility and asymmetric effects resulting from changes in the real estate search index. Enhancing robustness, macroeconomic variables are added to the mean equation. Additionally, a run test assesses the efficiency of the Greek housing market.

Findings

The results show a significant relationship between the Greek housing market and our real estate sentiment index; an increase (decrease) in search activity, indicating a growing interest in the real estate market, is strongly linked to potential increases (decreases) in real estate prices. These results remain robust across various estimation procedures and control variables. These findings underscore the influential role of real estate sentiment on the Greek housing market and highlight the importance of considering behavioral factors when analyzing and predicting trends in the housing market.

Originality/value

To investigate the behavioral effect on the Greek housing market, we construct our behavioral pattern indexes using Google search-based sentiment data from Google Trends. Additionally, we incorporate the Google Trend index as an explanatory variable in the EGARCH mean equation to evaluate the influence of online search behavior on the dynamics and prices of the Greek housing market.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 May 2024

Rangan Gupta and Damien Moodley

Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national…

Abstract

Purpose

Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national and regional (metropolitan statistical area [MSA]) level. Based on search theory, the authors, however, postulate that search activity can also predict housing returns volatility. This study aims to explore the possibility of using online search activity to predict both housing returns and volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a k-th order non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test allows us to test for predictability in a robust manner over the entire conditional distribution of both housing price returns and its volatility (i.e. squared returns) by controlling for nonlinearity and structural breaks that exist in the data.

Findings

The analysis over the monthly period of 2004:01 to 2021:01 produces results indicating that while housing search activity continues to predict aggregate US house price returns, barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution, volatility is relatively strongly predicted over the entire quantile range considered. The results carry over to an alternative (the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based) metric of volatility, higher (weekly)-frequency data (over January 2018–March 2021) and to over 84% of the 77 MSAs considered.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study regarding predictability of overall and regional US housing price returns and volatility using search activity, based on a non-parametric higher-order causality-in-quantiles framework, which is insightful to investors, policymakers and academics.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 May 2024

Qifeng Wang, Bofan Lin and Consilz Tan

The purpose of this paper is to develop an index for measuring urban house price affordability that integrates spatial considerations and to explore the drivers of housing…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop an index for measuring urban house price affordability that integrates spatial considerations and to explore the drivers of housing affordability using the post-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) approach and the ordinary least squares method of regression analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on time-series data collected from 2005 to 2021 for 256 prefectural-level city districts in China. The new urban spatial house-to-price ratio introduced in this study adds the consideration of commuting costs due to spatial endowment compared to the traditional house-to-price ratio. And compared with the use of ordinary economic modelling methods, this study adopts the post-LASSO variable selection approach combined with the k-fold cross-test model to identify the most important drivers of housing affordability, thus better solving the problems of multicollinearity and overfitting.

Findings

Urban macroeconomics environment and government regulations have varying degrees of influence on housing affordability in cities. Among them, gross domestic product is the most important influence.

Research limitations/implications

The paper provides important implications for policymakers, real estate professionals and researchers. For example, policymakers will be able to design policies that target the most influential factors of housing affordability in their region.

Originality/value

This study introduces a new urban spatial house price-to-income ratio, and it examines how macroeconomic indicators, government regulation, real estate market supply and urban infrastructure level have a significant impact on housing affordability. The problem of having too many variables in the decision-making process is minimized through the post-LASSO methodology, which varies the parameters of the model to allow for the ranking of the importance of the variables. As a result, this approach allows policymakers and stakeholders in the real estate market more flexibility in determining policy interventions. In addition, through the k-fold cross-validation methodology, the study ensures a high degree of accuracy and credibility when using drivers to predict housing affordability.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Askar Choudhury

The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the…

Abstract

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic, a sudden and disruptive external shock to the USA and global economy, profoundly affected various operations. Thus, it becomes imperative to investigate the repercussions of this pandemic on the US housing market. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a crucial facet of the real estate market: the Time on the Market (TOM). Therefore, this study aims to ascertain the net effect of this unprecedented event after controlling for economic influences and real estate market variations.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly time series data were collected for the period of January 2010 through December 2022 for statistical analysis. Given the temporal nature of the data, we conducted the Durbin–Watson test on the OLS residuals to ascertain the presence of autocorrelation. Subsequently, we used the generalized regression model to mitigate any identified issues of autocorrelation. However, it is important to note that the response variable derived from count data (specifically, the median number of months), which may not conform to the normality assumption associated with standard regression models. To better accommodate this, we opted to use Poisson regression as an alternative approach. Additionally, recognizing the possibility of overdispersion in the count data, we also explored the application of the negative binomial model as a means to address this concern, if present.

Findings

This study’s findings offer an insightful perspective on the housing market’s resilience in the face of COVID-19 external shock, aligning with previous research outcomes. Although TOM showed a decrease of around 10 days with standard regression and 27% with Poisson regression during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is noteworthy that this reduction lacked statistical significance in both models. As such, the impact of COVID-19 on TOM, and consequently on the housing market, appears less dramatic than initially anticipated.

Originality/value

This research deepens our understanding of the complex lead–lag relationships between key factors, ultimately facilitating an early indication of housing price movements. It extends the existing literature by scrutinizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the TOM. From a pragmatic viewpoint, this research carries valuable implications for real estate professionals and policymakers. It equips them with the tools to assess the prevailing conditions of the real estate market and to prepare for potential shifts in market dynamics. Specifically, both investors and policymakers are urged to remain vigilant in monitoring changes in the inventory of houses for sale. This vigilant approach can serve as an early warning system for upcoming market changes, helping stakeholders make well-informed decisions.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan and Niaz Ali

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis.

Findings

The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA.

Originality/value

This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 April 2024

Evangelos Vasileiou, Elroi Hadad and Georgios Melekos

The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the Greek house market during the period 2006–2022 using not only economic variables but also behavioral variables…

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the Greek house market during the period 2006–2022 using not only economic variables but also behavioral variables, taking advantage of available information on the volume of Google searches. In order to quantify the behavioral variables, we implement a Python code using the Pytrends 4.9.2 library.

Design/methodology/approach

In our study, we assert that models relying solely on economic variables, such as GDP growth, mortgage interest rates and inflation, may lack precision compared to those that integrate behavioral indicators. Recognizing the importance of behavioral insights, we incorporate Google Trends data as a key behavioral indicator, aiming to enhance our understanding of market dynamics by capturing online interest in Greek real estate through searches related to house prices, sales and related topics. To quantify our behavioral indicators, we utilize a Python code leveraging Pytrends, enabling us to extract relevant queries for global and local searches. We employ the EGARCH(1,1) model on the Greek house price index, testing several macroeconomic variables alongside our Google Trends indexes to explain housing returns.

Findings

Our findings show that in some cases the relationship between economic variables, such as inflation and mortgage rates, and house prices is not always consistent with the theory because we should highlight the special conditions of the examined country. The country of our sample, Greece, presents the special case of a country with severe sovereign debt issues, which at the same time has the privilege to have a strong currency and the support and the obligations of being an EU/EMU member.

Practical implications

The results suggest that Google Trends can be a valuable tool for academics and practitioners in order to understand what drives house prices. However, further research should be carried out on this topic, for example, causality relationships, to gain deeper insight into the possibilities and limitations of using such tools in analyzing housing market trends.

Originality/value

This is the first paper, to the best of our knowledge, that examines the benefits of Google Trends in studying the Greek house market.

Details

EconomiA, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1517-7580

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Diane Crocker and Erin Dej

This study aims to explore the gendered nature of housing insecurity by investigating how gender affects women’s experience moving from transitional to market housing. By…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the gendered nature of housing insecurity by investigating how gender affects women’s experience moving from transitional to market housing. By describing women’s pathways out of supportive or transitional housing support, the authors show how patriarchal forces in housing policies and practices affect women’s efforts to find secure housing. The authors argue that gender-neutral approaches to housing will fail to meet women’s needs.

Design/methodology/approach

This study explores the narratives from women accessing support services in Halifax, Canada. The first author conducted deep narrative interviews with women seeking to move from transition to market housing.

Findings

This research sheds light on the effects of gendered barriers to safe, suitable and affordable housing; how women’s experiences and expectations are shaped by these barriers; and, how housing-based supports must address the uniquely gendered experiences women face as they access market housing. In addition, this research reveals the importance of gender-responsive services that empower women facing a sexist housing market.

Originality/value

Little research has explored questions related to gender and housing among those seeking to move from transitional to marker housing, and existing research focuses on women’s housing insecurity as it relates to domestic violence. The sample of women included those having housing insecurity for a variety of reasons, including substance use and young motherhood.

Details

Housing, Care and Support, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1460-8790

Keywords

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